{"id":15523,"date":"2026-09-14T00:22:00","date_gmt":"2026-09-14T07:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/buenosdiasbcs.com\/?p=15523"},"modified":"2026-09-13T13:24:55","modified_gmt":"2026-09-13T20:24:55","slug":"paquete-economico-2027-eleva-deuda-y-riesgo-fiscal-advierten","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buenosdiasbcs.com\/?p=15523","title":{"rendered":"Paquete Econ\u00f3mico 2027 eleva deuda y riesgo fiscal, advierten"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

El Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Econ\u00f3mica y Presupuestaria (CIEP) advirti\u00f3 que el Paquete Econ\u00f3mico 2027 deja pendiente la consolidaci\u00f3n fiscal y aumenta riesgos de deuda p\u00fablica.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

El Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Econ\u00f3mica y Presupuestaria (CIEP) advirti\u00f3 que el Paquete Econ\u00f3mico 2027 posterga la consolidaci\u00f3n fiscal en M\u00e9xico, estimando una deuda p\u00fablica ascendente de 21.6 billones de pesos ante la insuficiente recaudaci\u00f3n presupuestaria. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Riesgos de deuda por poca recaudaci\u00f3n fiscal<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

El Paquete Econ\u00f3mico 2027 present\u00f3 variables macroecon\u00f3micas m\u00e1s ajustadas a la realidad<\/strong> y refleja esfuerzos por contener el d\u00e9ficit; sin embargo, dej\u00f3 pendiente la consolidaci\u00f3n fiscal. De acuerdo con el CIEP<\/a>, la estimaci\u00f3n de la deuda muestra elevados riesgos de incrementar su volumen <\/strong>considerando su comportamiento hist\u00f3rico. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Para 2026, la Secretar\u00eda de Hacienda y Cr\u00e9dito P\u00fablico (SHCP) ajust\u00f3 su expectativa de crecimiento econ\u00f3mico a un rango de entre 1% y 2%, inferior al intervalo de 1.8% a 2.8% proyectado en abril dentro de los Pre-Criterios Generales de Pol\u00edtica Econ\u00f3mica 2027. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Asimismo, para 2027 la dependencia redujo su previsi\u00f3n a un rango de entre 1.5% y 2.5%, respecto al 1.9% a 2.9% estimado originalmente. En contraste, los analistas de la Encuesta Citi de Expectativas calculan un avance del PIB de 1.3% para 2026 y de 1.8% para 2027. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cEs un marco macroecon\u00f3mico m\u00e1s realista, pero la consolidaci\u00f3n fiscal queda pendiente y est\u00e1 por debajo de lo deseado, y lo que vemos de la deuda es que, por lo general, hab\u00eda aumentos y hab\u00eda cierta contenci\u00f3n cada determinado periodo, lo que ahora vemos es que tendr\u00eda una tendencia creciente\u201d,\u00a0<\/em>afirm\u00f3 Judith M\u00e9ndez, directora ejecutiva del CIEP.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Indicadores del Paquete Fiscal 2027 <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

La propuesta hacendaria contempla una reducci\u00f3n del d\u00e9ficit a un ritmo menor al proyectado<\/strong> a inicios de a\u00f1o. Los principales indicadores macrofinancieros previstos por el Gobierno federal y analizados por el CIEP incluyen: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • D\u00e9ficit p\u00fablico<\/strong>:\u00a0Los Requerimientos Financieros del Sector P\u00fablico (RFSP) se estiman en 3.9% del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), por encima del 3.5% previsto en abril.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Saldo de la deuda<\/strong>:\u00a0El Saldo Hist\u00f3rico de los Requerimientos Financieros del Sector P\u00fablico (SHRFSP) alcanzar\u00e1 55% del PIB en 2027, lo que representa 0.7 puntos porcentuales m\u00e1s que lo aprobado para 2026.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Monto nominal de la deuda<\/strong>:\u00a0La deuda p\u00fablica total de M\u00e9xico llegar\u00e1 a 21.6 billones de pesos.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Gasto neto total<\/strong>:\u00a0Proyecci\u00f3n de 10.6 billones de pesos, un alza real de 0.7% frente a 2026.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Ingresos presupuestarios<\/strong>:\u00a0La Iniciativa de Ley de Ingresos de la Federaci\u00f3n prev\u00e9 9.16 billones de pesos, equivalentes al 23.2% del PIB.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    \u00bfC\u00f3mo se distribuir\u00e1 el presupuesto?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    De acuerdo con el CIEP, la consolidaci\u00f3n fiscal se encuentra comprometida debido a una recaudaci\u00f3n estancada <\/strong>en 22.8% del PIB, donde la baja en ingresos petroleros apenas se compensa con la recaudaci\u00f3n tributaria. Asimismo, el costo financiero de la deuda absorber\u00e1 4% del PIB, superando el nivel del endeudamiento p\u00fablico fijado en 3.9% del PIB. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    M\u00e9ndez explic\u00f3 que la iniciativa representa un inicio lento hacia la consolidaci\u00f3n fiscal. A su vez, el an\u00e1lisis del organismo detalla que cuatro rubros comprometen el 72% del gasto total proyectado para 2027: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • Gasto federalizado<\/strong>:\u00a03.05 billones de pesos.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Pensiones y jubilaciones<\/strong>:\u00a01.84 billones de pesos.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Costo financiero de la deuda<\/strong>:\u00a01.57 billones de pesos.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Inversi\u00f3n p\u00fablica<\/strong>:\u00a01.13 billones de pesos.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      En conjunto, estos compromisos suman 7.59 billones de pesos. Finalmente, la Miscel\u00e1nea Fiscal 2027 aportar\u00eda entre 0.34% y 0.36% del PIB por Impuesto Sobre la Renta (ISR), aportaci\u00f3n insuficiente<\/strong> para mitigar la ca\u00edda de 0.6 puntos del PIB proyectada en los recursos petroleros. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      (Con informaci\u00f3n de Bloomberg en L\u00ednea)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      El Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Econ\u00f3mica y Presupuestaria (CIEP) advirti\u00f3 que el Paquete Econ\u00f3mico 2027 deja pendiente la consolidaci\u00f3n fiscal y…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":15524,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15523","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-la-nacion"],"yoast_head":"\nPaquete Econ\u00f3mico 2027 eleva deuda y riesgo fiscal, advierten - Buenos D\u00edas BCS<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/buenosdiasbcs.com\/?p=15523\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Paquete Econ\u00f3mico 2027 eleva deuda y riesgo fiscal, advierten\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"El Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Econ\u00f3mica y Presupuestaria (CIEP) advirti\u00f3 que el Paquete Econ\u00f3mico 2027 deja pendiente la consolidaci\u00f3n fiscal y...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/buenosdiasbcs.com\/?p=15523\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Buenos D\u00edas BCS\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-09-14T07:22:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/buenosdiasbcs.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/1789274993227.jfif_.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"820\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"508\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Edici\u00f3n Buenos D\u00edas\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Edici\u00f3n Buenos D\u00edas\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tiempo de lectura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutos\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/buenosdiasbcs.com\\\/?p=15523#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/buenosdiasbcs.com\\\/?p=15523\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Edici\u00f3n Buenos D\u00edas\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/buenosdiasbcs.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/15aedc247eab7070ee5d76d6d069a821\"},\"headline\":\"Paquete Econ\u00f3mico 2027 eleva deuda y riesgo fiscal, advierten\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-09-14T07:22:00+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/buenosdiasbcs.com\\\/?p=15523\"},\"wordCount\":628,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/buenosdiasbcs.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/buenosdiasbcs.com\\\/?p=15523#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/buenosdiasbcs.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/09\\\/1789274993227.jfif_.webp\",\"articleSection\":[\"La Naci\u00f3n\"],\"inLanguage\":\"es\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/buenosdiasbcs.com\\\/?p=15523#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/buenosdiasbcs.com\\\/?p=15523\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/buenosdiasbcs.com\\\/?p=15523\",\"name\":\"Paquete Econ\u00f3mico 2027 eleva deuda y riesgo fiscal, advierten - 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